Foreign traders, please check: Review and Outlook of One Week's Hot News (5.20-5.26)

01 Important Event

The United Nations has raised its forecast for global economic growth this year, but has raised various hidden concerns

On Thursday local time, the United Nations released the "2024 World Economic Situation and Outlook" report. Compared to January, the United Nations is more optimistic about the world economic outlook and has raised its global economic growth forecast for this year from the 2.4% predicted at the beginning of the year to 2.7%. At the press conference that day, Shantanu Mukherjee, Director of the United Nations Department of Economic Analysis and Policy, specifically mentioned, "Our forecast is a cautious optimism with some important warnings." Mukherjee pointed out that inflation has fallen from its peak in 2023, but it is a symptom of potential global economic vulnerability and still a concern.

Source: Caixin News Agency

The year-on-year increase of 3.4% in US CPI in April is in line with expectations

The US CPI in April increased by 3.4% year-on-year, estimated to be 3.4%, compared to the previous value of 3.5%; The US CPI in April increased by 0.3% month on month, estimated to be 0.4%, compared to the previous value of 0.4%. In that month, after excluding volatile food and energy prices, core consumer prices in the United States increased by 3.6% year-on-year in April, which is in line with estimates; In April, core consumer prices increased by 0.3% month on month, in line with estimates.

Source: Caixin News Agency

China reduces its holdings of US bonds for the third consecutive month in March, while Japan and the UK increase their holdings

The International Capital Flow Report (TIC) of March 2024 of the US Treasury Department shows that Japan increased its holdings of US treasury bond bonds by US $19.9 billion in March, reaching US $1187.8 billion, continuing to be the largest creditor of the US. China reduced its holdings of US treasury bond to US $767.4 billion in March, the third consecutive reduction since January 2024. In March, the UK increased its holdings of US treasury bond bonds by US $26.8 billion to US $728.1 billion, ranking third in terms of position size.

Source: Global Market Intelligence

The Brazilian Ministry of Finance has raised its GDP growth forecast for this year

The Brazilian Ministry of Finance predicts an inflation rate of 3.7% in 2024 (previously 3.5%); The inflation rate is predicted to be 3.2% in 2025 (previously 3.1%); Forecast GDP growth of 2.5% in 2024 (previously 2.2%); Forecast GDP growth of 2.8% in 2025 (previously 2.8%).

Source: Global Market Intelligence

The Brazilian Ministry of Finance has raised its GDP growth forecast for this year

The Brazilian Ministry of Finance predicts an inflation rate of 3.7% in 2024 (previously 3.5%); The inflation rate is predicted to be 3.2% in 2025 (previously 3.1%); Forecast GDP growth of 2.5% in 2024 (previously 2.2%); Forecast GDP growth of 2.8% in 2025 (previously 2.8%).

Source: Global Market Intelligence

US real estate tycoon McCott seeks to form a consortium to bid for TikTok's US business

American billionaire Frank McCurt announced on May 15th local time that his organization Project Liberty is working with Guggenheim Partnership to form a consortium to acquire TikTok's US business. McCarthy stated in a statement that if an acquisition is achieved, he plans to restructure TikTok "to allow individual users to better control their digital identity and data.". McCott is an American real estate tycoon who previously owned the Los Angeles Dodgers in Major League Baseball (MLB). It is reported that multiple parties have expressed interest in bidding for TikTok's US business, including former US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and Kevin O'Leary, chairman of O'Shares ETFs and veteran of the reality show Shark Tank. On May 7 local time, TikTok and ByteDance filed a lawsuit to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit in the District of Columbia, seeking to prevent the TikTok related bill signed by U.S. President Biden. In relevant terms, ByteDance is required to spin off its US business for about 9 months, otherwise it will face a nationwide ban in the US.

Source: Global Market Intelligence

Argentina's cumulative inflation rate in the past 12 months has reached 289.4%

According to data released by the Argentine National Bureau of Statistics, the country's consumer price index rose 8.8% month on month in April compared to March, with a cumulative increase of 65% in the first four months of this year and a cumulative increase of 289.4% in the past 12 months. The data shows that the categories with the highest price increase in April were housing, water, electricity, gas, and fuel, with a monthly increase of 35.6%.

Source: Global Market Intelligence

New Brain Computer Interface Device for Real time Decoding of Brain Speech Signals

The brain science research team at the California Institute of Technology has developed a new device. It is the first brain computer interface device that can decode words in the human brain in real-time by recording signals from individual neurons. Although this technology is currently in its early stages and only applicable to a few words, it is expected to enable those who have lost their language abilities to "speak" with ideas in the future. The relevant paper was published in the latest issue of the journal Nature and Human Behavior.

Source: Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily

Anthropic introduces chatbots to Europe to increase revenue

Artificial intelligence startup Anthropic has launched the Claude chatbot and subscription program in Europe. Anthropic stated that the company's basic software products have gained certain appeal in industries such as finance and hotels across Europe. Now, it hopes to use this as a basis. The CEO of the company, Dario Amodei, stated that the company's cloud computing partners - Amazon and Alphabet's Google - will help the company meet stricter EU restrictions on enterprise data usage.

Source: Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily

OpenAI launches faster and cheaper AI models for all users

OpenAI has launched a faster and cheaper artificial intelligence model to support its chatbot ChatGPT. During Monday's live broadcast, OpenAI launched a new big language model GPT-4o. This is an updated version of the GPT-4 model that has been around for over a year. The model is trained based on a large amount of data from the Internet, is better at processing text and audio, and supports 50 languages. The new model will target all users, not just paying users. The release of GPT-4o is bound to shake up the rapidly developing field of artificial intelligence, and currently GPT-4 remains the gold standard. The release of the new model by OpenAI coincides with the day before the Google I/O Developer Conference. Google is an early leader in the field of artificial intelligence and is expected to use this event to release more AI updates to catch up with OpenAI supported by Microsoft.

Source: Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily

02 Industry News

Overview of Top Home Textile Suppliers in the United States

The US home textile market has experienced tremendous turbulence in recent years. In the sluggish market environment after the epidemic, American home textile suppliers are doing their best to make adjustments. Top suppliers possess abundant resources and strive to drive business growth in the fierce market competition.

The 1888 company offset the decline in the retail market by expanding its hotel business. Oriental Weavers has shifted its customers to independent retailers, to some extent alleviating the sales decline of chain retail customers. Yunus company has seized the opportunity in the international cotton market and completed 100% vertical production from cotton harvesting to finished fabric products. Natco, with its keen foresight and early forecasting and planning with major retail customers, shifted key production to the United States, avoiding unfavorable factors such as rising logistics costs. Keeco merged with Hollander in 2022, strengthening the strength of major brands and private brands such as Ralph Lauren Home and Calvin Klein. Indo Count has acquired GHCL's production plant in India and its US subsidiary Grace Home Fashions, making it the world's largest bedding and home textile production enterprise, controlling more resources, and its market ranking has jumped to fourth place.

Source: HomeTextilesToday

Sea freight rates from China to the United States have increased by nearly 40% in a week, with freight rates returning to tens of thousands of dollars

Since May, there has been a sudden shortage of one cabin and soaring freight rates in China North America shipping, with a large number of small and medium-sized foreign trade enterprises facing difficulties and high shipping costs. On May 13th, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (US West Route) reached 2508 points, up 37% from May 6th and 38.5% from the end of April. This index is released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange and mainly presents the sea freight prices from Shanghai to ports on the west coast of the United States. The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) released on May 10th increased by 18.82% compared to the end of April, reaching a new high since September 2022. Among them, the US West route rose to $4393/40 foot containers, and the US East route rose to $5562/40 foot containers, up 22% and 19.3% respectively from the end of April, reaching the level after the Suez Canal congestion in 2021.

Source: Caixin Network

Multiple factors support liner companies to raise prices again in June

After multiple consolidation shipping companies raised their freight rates for two rounds in May, the consolidation market remains booming, and analysts believe that a price increase in June is in sight. For the current market situation, freight forwarders, liner companies, and transportation industry researchers have all stated that the impact of the Red Sea incident on transportation capacity is becoming increasingly apparent. Coupled with recent positive foreign trade data and a rebound in transportation demand, it is expected that the market will continue to be hot. Multiple shipping industry interviewees believe that many factors have recently supported the consolidation market, and the uncertainty of forward geopolitical conflicts may amplify the volatility of the consolidation index (Euroline) futures far month contracts.

Source: Caixin News Agency

Hong Kong and Peru have roughly completed negotiations on a free trade agreement

The Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government, Qiu Yinghua, held a bilateral meeting with Peruvian Minister of Foreign Trade and Tourism, Elizabeth Galdo Mar í n, during the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Trade Ministers Meeting in Arequipa, Peru today (Arequipa time, 16th), and jointly announced that negotiations on the Hong Kong Peru Free Trade Agreement (FTA) have been largely completed. In addition to the free trade agreement with Peru, Hong Kong will continue to actively expand its economic and trade network, including seeking to join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement as soon as possible, and concluding free trade agreements or investment agreements with potential trade partners in the Middle East and along the the Belt and Road.

Source: Overseas Cross border Weekly Report

Zhuhai Gaolan Port Area completed a container throughput of 240000 TEUs in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 22.7%

The reporter learned from the Gaolan Border Inspection Station that in the first quarter of this year, the Gaolan Port Area in Zhuhai completed a cargo throughput of 26.6 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%, of which foreign trade increased by 33.1%; Completed a container throughput of 240000 TEUs, a year-on-year increase of 22.7%, with foreign trade increasing by 62.0%, showing a hot foreign trade acceleration.

Source: Caixin News Agency

Fujian Province's cross-border e-commerce exports reached a new historical high in the first four months of the same period

The cross-border e-commerce export volume of Fujian Province in the first four months of this year reached 80.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 105.5%, setting a new historical high for the same period. Data shows that cross-border e-commerce export trade in Fujian Province is mainly based on cross-border direct purchase, accounting for 78.8% of the total export volume. Among them, the export value of electromechanical products was 26.78 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 120.9%; The export value of clothing and accessories was 7.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 193.6%; The export value of plastic products was 7.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 192.2%. In addition, the export value of cultural products and high-tech products increased by 194.5% and 189.8% year-on-year, respectively.

Source: Overseas Cross border Weekly Report

Since April, the number of new merchants going abroad in Yiwu has increased by 77.5%

According to data from Alibaba International Station, since April 2024, the number of new merchants in Yiwu on the international station has increased by 77.5% year-on-year. Recently, the Zhejiang Provincial Department of Commerce and the Yiwu Municipal Government have also launched the "Vitality Zhejiang Merchants Going Abroad to Ensure Efficiency Plan" with Alibaba International Station, providing a definite business opportunity guarantee, transaction efficiency improvement, talent transfer and other service system for Zhejiang merchants, including Yiwu merchants.

Source: Overseas Cross border Weekly Report

03 Important event reminder for next week

Global News for a Week

Monday (May 20th): Federal Reserve Chairman Powell delivered a video speech at the graduation ceremony of Georgetown University Law School, Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostic delivered a welcome speech at an event, and Federal Reserve Director Barr delivered a speech.

Tuesday (May 21): South Korea and the UK host an AI summit, the Bank of Japan holds its second policy review seminar, the Federal Reserve of Australia releases the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting, US Treasury Secretary Yellen&European Central Bank President Lagarde&German Treasury Secretary Lindner deliver speeches, Richmond Federal Reserve Chairman Barkin delivers a welcome speech at an event, Federal Reserve Director Waller delivers a speech on the US economy, New York Fed Chairman Williams delivers an opening speech at an event, Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostek delivers a welcome speech at an event, and Federal Reserve Director Bar participates in a fireside conversation.

Wednesday (May 22): Bank of England Governor Bailey delivered a speech at the London School of Economics and Political Science, Bostic&Mest&Collins participated in a group discussion on "Central Banks in the Post Pandemic Financial System", New Zealand Federal Reserve announced interest rate resolutions and monetary policy statements, and Chicago Federal Reserve President Goodsby delivered an opening speech at an event.

Thursday (May 23): G7 finance ministers held a meeting with the central bank governor, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the monetary policy meeting, the Bank of Korea released the interest rate resolution, the Bank of Türkiye released the interest rate resolution, the euro zone manufacturing/service industry PMI initial value in May, the number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits in the week to May 18, and the U.S. S&P global manufacturing/service industry PMI initial value in May.

Friday (May 24th): Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic participated in a student Q&A event, European Central Bank Executive Director Schnabel delivered a speech, Japan's April core CPI annual rate, Germany's first quarter unadjusted GDP annual rate final values, Swiss Bank President Jordan delivered a speech, Federal Reserve Director Waller delivered a speech, and the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index final values for May in the United States.

04 Global Important Meetings

The 22nd Indonesia International Power Generation, Renewable Energy and Power Equipment Exhibition in 2024

Hosted by: Indonesian Electrical Lighting Association, Indonesian Electronics Industry Association, Indonesian Smart Grid Project, Indonesian Renewable Energy Cooperative

Time: August 28th to August 31st, 2024

Exhibition location: Indonesia Jakarta International Convention and Exhibition Center

Suggestion: Indonesia (referred to as Indonesia), as the fourth most populous country in the world and the largest economy in Southeast Asia, has developed rapidly in recent decades, demonstrating good economic vitality and huge potential for energy and electricity demand. Indonesia is rich in coal, oil and gas resources, as well as renewable energy resources such as hydro energy, geothermal energy and solar energy. The "the Belt and Road" initiative and the "Global Marine Fulcrum" strategy proposed by the leaders of the Chinese and Indonesian governments have opened up a broad space for cooperation between the two countries in oil, gas, coal, electricity and other energy and power. Foreign traders in relevant industries deserve attention.

The 49th French International Exhibition on Power Systems, Grid Equipment and Technology in 2024

Host: CIGRE

Time: August 26th to August 30th, 2024

Exhibition location: Paris International Convention and Exhibition Center

Suggestion: The International Exhibition on Power Systems, Grid Equipment and Technology (CIGRE) in Paris, France is organized by the International Conference on the Large Grid (CIGRE) and is held every two years. It has been successfully held for 48 times so far. The seminar held at the same time is also the most important event organized by the International Grid Conference. In 2022, the exhibition area reached 17300 square meters, with 300 companies from 91 countries participating and over 9600 professional visitors. During the exhibition, 665 academic conferences were also held. Due to the fact that each exhibition is held simultaneously with the conference, more than half of the professional audience consists of power system technology experts and scholars from around the world. Foreign trade professionals in related industries are worth paying attention to.

05 Global Major Festivals

May 20th (Monday) Cameroon - National Day

In 1960, the French Mandate of Cameroon became independent according to United Nations resolutions and established the Republic of Cameroon. On May 20, 1972, a new constitution was passed through a referendum, abolishing the federal system and establishing the centralized United Republic of Cameroon. In January 1984, the country was renamed the Republic of Cameroon. May 20th every year is Cameroon's National Day.

Event: At that time, the capital city of Yaound é will hold a military parade and parade, with the President and government officials attending the celebration activities.

Suggestion: Confirm your vacation and wish in advance.

May 25th (Saturday) Argentina May Revolution Memorial Day

The May Revolution Memorial Day in Argentina was established on May 25, 1810, in Buenos Aires, where the Council of Ministers overthrew the Spanish colonial governor of La Plata in South America. Therefore, May 25th is designated as Argentina's Revolutionary Day and a national holiday in Argentina.

Activity: Hold a military parade celebration ceremony, and the current president delivers a speech; People knock on pots and pans to celebrate; Wave the national flag and slogans; Some women wear traditional clothing and shuttle through the crowd, sending bananas tied with blue ribbons.

Suggestion: Confirm your vacation and wish in advance.

May 25th (Saturday) Jordan Independence Day

Jordan Independence Day was a rapidly developing struggle among the people of Outer Jordan against British mandate rule after World War II. On March 22, 1946, Outer Jordan signed the London Treaty with Britain, abolishing Britain's appointed rule and recognizing Outer Jordan's independence. On May 25 of the same year, Abdullah ascended the throne (reigning from 1946 to 1951) and changed the country's name to the Hashemite Kingdom of Outer Jordan.

Activities: Holding military vehicle parades, fireworks displays, and other activities to celebrate National Independence Day.

Suggestion: Confirm your vacation and wish in advance.